A Scottish think tank has published a map of places it believes are at highest risk of transmitting coronavirus, which it believes should enable some parts of the country to emerge from lockdown earlier than others.

Scotianomics has not based its Covid-19 Community Risks Index on the number of cases of infection reported.

Instead, it has looked at the make up of communities in each of the country’s 354 council wards and assessed the risk based on factors including age, health and local economy.

All six East Lothian Council wards feature on the list, with the most “at risk” being North Berwick Coastal, which was rated the 145th most at-risk ward in the country.

Tranent, Wallyford and Macmerry was the least at risk, coming 301st out of 354 wards.

The map places Musselburgh in 230th position, Haddington and Lammermuir at 254th and Dunbar and East Linton at 286th position.

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, founding director of Scotianomics, in Glasgow, said: “We believe this geographic breakdown can help the national response [to coronavirus] to provide clear analysis of existing data.

“What is evident is that, for a wide variety of reasons, the risks vary hugely in different communities across Scotland.

“In terms of both the economy and health and well-being, we believe it makes sense to ease the lockdown according to those regional differences in risk.

“There has already been a great deal of debate on whether the four nations within the UK should ease restrictions in lockdown, despite the fact that Oban is likely to have a completely different risk profile to Tower Hamlets in London.

“What our research shows is that there are also significant variations even within Scotland.”

And he added: “Across the world, other countries, including China, Italy and Germany, responded to the initial threat on a regionalised basis and are now lifting lockdown according to regional variations.

“Our research suggests this is the most likely way to prevent a second wave and to protect the economy.”

The research, led by senior researcher Samuel MacKinnon, was conducted during April and has been submitted to the Scottish Government’s Advisory Group on Economic Recovery.

It is now being made publicly accessible and Scotianomics has pledged that it will update the online tracker as new datasets become available.

Currently, the research does not factor in actual infection rates or the fatalities recorded in each area, as these figures are not yet publicly available in sufficiently detailed format.

Rather, it is based on existing data for Scotland’s 354 local authority wards and calculates each area’s risk of exposure according to two factors – transmission probability and potential for fatalities.

The data used in those calculations include population density; how many older people or those with underlying health conditions live in the area; how many people use road and rail travel; how easy or otherwise it is to access local health services; and socio-economic factors, such as the average income of residents in each area.

Mr MacIntyre-Kemp added: “This is nothing to do with the number of cases in an area or how well people living in each area have observed the lockdown.

“It is not a map of Covid-19 cases across Scotland but of the areas most at risk of community infection.

“However, what it sets out very clearly is that the risks of transmission and the likelihood of fatalities within particular communities can be predicted with a high degree of confidence.

“This demonstrates the scope to consider issues such as Orkney schools reopening on a different timescale to Greenock’s.

“It is our hope that this kind of fact-based, data-driven research will help shape the Scottish Government’s plans to get the best possible outcomes for both public health and the economy, by lifting lockdown according to the very different risks in different areas.”

Scotianomics was created at the start of 2020 to offer data-driven analysis and risk assessment of significant opportunities or threats to the Scottish economy, aimed at Government policy makers and other economic decision-makers.

The Covid-19 Risk Monitor can be viewed online at www.scotianomics.org/covid19-risk-monitor

As of May 17, there were 74 coronavirus-related deaths in East Lothian.