WITH speculation surrounding the future of Alfredo Morelos and with Rangers suffering from a severe lack of alternatives up front following Jermain Defoe’s recent injury, Steven Gerrard will be delighted to have snapped up Anderlecht striker Kemar Roofe on a four-year deal.
At 27, Roofe is fast approaching his prime as a footballer and fans of the Ibrox club will be hoping that the former Leeds United man can hit the ground running and play an influential role in their team’s title challenge this season – and perhaps even replace the goalscoring void left by Morelos, in the event the Colombian forward joins Lille.
A quick look at Roofe’s statistics while playing under Vincent Kompany in Belgium last season suggests that while the Englishman has had a decent enough goal tally over the last few seasons, there are grounds for cautious optimism that Roofe can find the net even more regularly for his new employers.
At Anderlecht, Roofe was averaging 0.45 goals per 90 minutes played – a decent enough rate, averaging a goal a little over every two games. Now, this is some way off the likes of Morelos (0.76) and Defoe (1.02), and direct comparisons between the three will not tell the full story as they were playing in different leagues with a varying standards of opposition.
What should encourage Gerrard, though, is an examination of Roofe’s expected goals (xG) for the previous campaign. This metric quantifies both the number of shots a player takes and the likelihood of converting them, thus giving a clearer insight into the sort of opportunities they are being presented with. Roofe had an xG/90 of 0.62 for last season, implying that the striker perhaps should have scored more than he actually did – but it is also worth pointing out that this is the highest that Roofe’s average xG has been at any stage in his career.
The fact that Roofe has spurned opportunities that he could have converted will be an obvious concern, but these figures testify to the forward’s positioning, timing and ability to carve out space for a shot on goal. His efforts might not be going in quite as often as they perhaps should but Roofe is getting in the right positions and that alone suggests that in time, the goals will come.
A look at Roofe’s shot accuracy would add further evidence to this theory. The striker was one of the most accurate players in the Belgian top flight last season, with around 57% of his shots on target – the second-highest rate of any player in the division. And, perhaps more encouragingly, Roofe’s shot accuracy has risen in each of the last four seasons.
The underlying data suggests that Roofe is improving in a number of key metrics but he must become more clinical in front of goal if he is to effectively lead the line at Ibrox. Both Morelos and Defoe outperformed their xG during the last campaign (meaning they scored more than they reasonably ought to) and if the Ibrox club are to win the title at long last, they will need Roofe to do the same. That will require improvement from the 27-year-old but the numbers suggest that Roofe is fully prepared to do just that.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel